By James H Fowler
Such a lot learn on two-party elections has thought of the consequence as a unmarried, dichotomous occasion: both one or the opposite occasion wins. during this groundbreaking ebook, James Fowler and Oleg Smirnov examine now not simply who wins, yet through how a lot, they usually marshal compelling proof that mandates-in the shape of margin of victory-matter. utilizing theoretical types, desktop simulation, rigorously designed experiments, and empirical info, the authors express that when an election the coverage positions of either events circulation within the course most popular via the profitable party-and they movement much more if the victory is huge. moreover, Fowler and Smirnov not just convey that the divergence among the coverage positions of the events is maximum while the former election was once shut, but additionally that coverage positions are additional encouraged by means of electoral volatility and ideological polarization.
Read or Download Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future (Social Logic of Politics) PDF
Similar elections books
Sarah Birch assesses the effect of electoral procedure layout on political swap in post-communist Europe. because the cave in of communism in important and jap Europe among 1989 and 1991, almost all of the states within the zone have undertaken major electoral reform. This research strains the a number of hyperlinks among the evolution of electoral structures and political switch and establishes styles within the results of electoral procedure layout on post-communist advancements.
This well timed publication updates, and takes inventory of, Lipset and Rokkan's vintage paintings social gathering structures and Voter Alignments: Cross-National views, an influential paintings considering the fact that its ebook in 1967. It examines the importance of the unique quantity for the background of political sociology, and assesses its theoretical and empirical relevance for the learn of up to date elections, electorate and events.
The publication deals energetic and hugely readable case reports of the main exciting and significant congressional races of 2008. either residence and Senate races are integrated and every case covers an identical subject matters awarded within the comparable order in the instances. This comprises profiles of either applicants and the congressional district or kingdom of the senate race, in addition to a dialogue of the most coverage problems with the crusade, crusade method, media insurance of the applicants, curiosity staff involvement and ensuing vote.
"This ebook offers a theoretical and ancient account of felon disenfranchisement, displaying deep connections among punishment and citizenship practices within the usa. those connections are deployed quietly and but perniciously as a part of a political process of white supremacy, shaping modern regimes of punishment and governance"--
- Political Parties in Multi-Level Polities: The Nordic Countries Compared
- Harper's Team: Behind the Scenes in the Conservative Rise to Power
- Voting Hopes or Fears?: White Voters, Black Candidates, and Racial Politics in America
- Who Will Be the Next President?: A Guide to the U.S. Presidential Election System (SpringerBriefs in Law)
- A Long Time Coming: The Inspiring, Combative 2008 Campaign and the Historic Election of Barack Obama
- How the Hell Did This Happen?: The Election of 2016
Extra resources for Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future (Social Logic of Politics)
Parties use information from the previous election to update their estimate of the location of the median voter. Elections, however, may not provide perfect information about the location of the median voter due to fluctuating turnout, idiosyncratic platforms, changing "policy moods" (Stimson, Mackuen, and Erikson 1995) and a variety of other random shocks (Londregan and Romer 1993; Adams and Merrill 2003). Therefore, for any single election the median voter, m, can be thought of as the outcome of a random variable with mean M.
Result 3: As one party's ideal point becomes more extreme, the equilibrium platforms of both parties move in the direction of the more extreme party. This dynamic may surprise formal theorists and scholars who study party behavior. First, a more extreme platform has a lower probability of winning the election. Second, a more extreme platform can be viewed as an aggressive challenge to the other party. Both factors might warrant a titfor-tat-type response: the other party could similarly choose a more extreme platform closer to its preference point.
Notice that both platforms become more liberal as vote share for the left party increases. The higher left vote share indicates the median voter is farther to the left, so the left party has more leeway to move platforms toward its own preferences, whereas the right feels more pressure to move its platforms toward the center. In other words, both parties move with the mandate. 2 shows the effect of vote share on divergence. Notice first of all that, regardless of the size of the vote share, parties do not converge.